{"id":14773,"date":"2025-12-12T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/?post_type=america&#038;p=14773"},"modified":"2025-12-11T22:27:56","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T03:27:56","slug":"dc-power-play-billion-dollar-prediction-markets-build-a-firewall-against-state-crackdowns","status":"publish","type":"america","link":"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/dc-power-play-billion-dollar-prediction-markets-build-a-firewall-against-state-crackdowns\/","title":{"rendered":"DC power play: billion-dollar prediction markets build a firewall against state crackdowns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prediction markets are done playing cute. After a year of cease-and-desist letters and state-level smackdowns, Kalshi and Crypto.com have pulled together a K-Street vehicle \u2014 the <strong>Coalition for Prediction Markets<\/strong> \u2014 with Robinhood, Coinbase and Underdog on board, to argue that event contracts belong under federal derivatives law, not in the same box as parlay cards and moneyline bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/cftc-defends-prediction-markets-as-senators-intensify-scrutiny\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CFTC defends prediction markets as senators intensify scrutiny<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The backdrop: <strong>39 U.S. states now offer legal sportsbooks<\/strong>, but prediction markets are live even in states without regulated sports betting because they clear contracts through <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/cftc-defends-prediction-markets-as-senators-intensify-scrutiny\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CFTC-<\/a>supervised derivatives entities. That regulatory split is exactly what\u2019s under attack as regulators in Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Arizona, Illinois, Montana and Ohio move to brand sports-linked event contracts as <strong>unlicensed sports wagering<\/strong> and order platforms to shut off local traffic and let players withdraw funds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/mve-ads\/?lang=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"727\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/impactful-accelerate-your-brand-with-mundovideo-ads.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14348\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/impactful-accelerate-your-brand-with-mundovideo-ads.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/impactful-accelerate-your-brand-with-mundovideo-ads-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/impactful-accelerate-your-brand-with-mundovideo-ads-768x558.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/mve-ads\/?lang=en\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This isn\u2019t a niche corner of crypto anymore. Kalshi just closed a <strong>$1 billion round at an $11 billion valuation<\/strong> and reported a record <strong>$4.54 billion in November trading volume<\/strong>, with Bank-style research calling out <strong>$5.8 billion in monthly handle<\/strong> versus <strong>$3.7 billion at Polymarket<\/strong>. Robinhood\u2019s prediction hub has pushed roughly <strong>$9 billion in contracts and ~$300 million in annual recurring revenue<\/strong> off event products alone, and that\u2019s before the firm fully internalizes fees via its own LedgerX-based DCM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Legally, the coalition is telegraphing a <strong>preemption fight<\/strong>. Their theory: once the CFTC signs off on an event contract listed on a designated contract market and cleared through a registered DCO, states can\u2019t re-characterize those same contracts as \u201cillegal bookmaking\u201d without running head-on into the Commodity Exchange Act. Expect heavy emphasis on <strong>conflict and field preemption, Dormant Commerce Clause arguments<\/strong> and the idea that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/cftc-defends-prediction-markets-as-senators-intensify-scrutiny\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CFTC KYC\/AML<\/a>, surveillance and position-limit rules already cover the consumer-protection ground state regulators claim to be defending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/opinion\/prediction-markets-the-next-big-bet-regulators-cant-ignore\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Prediction markets: the next big bet regulators can\u2019t ignore<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">States, for their part, are leaning into traditional police-power rhetoric: if a contract settles on the outcome of a game, looks like a prop bet, and is marketed like sports wagering, it should sit inside the same licensing, tax and integrity framework as a sportsbook skin. Connecticut\u2019s orders, for example, read like classic \u201cunlicensed sports betting\u201d cases: stop taking action, stop advertising, let in-state users cash out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The coalition\u2019s move turns what looked like a series of one-off state dust-ups into a <strong>coordinated federal test case<\/strong>. If prediction markets win the classification war in D.C. and the courts, they lock in a CFTC-only lane for a product set already posting multi-billion-dollar monthly handle. If they lose, expect event contracts on sports \u2014 and eventually politics and macro \u2014 to be dragged back into the same fragmented, state-by-state map that U.S. sportsbooks have been navigating since PASPA fell.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prediction markets are done playing cute. After a year of cease-and-desist letters and state-level smackdowns, Kalshi and Crypto.com have pulled together a K-Street vehicle \u2014 the Coalition for Prediction Markets \u2014 with Robinhood, Coinbase and Underdog on board, to argue that event contracts belong under federal derivatives law, not in the same box as parlay [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14774,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1458,4899,105],"class_list":["post-14773","america","type-america","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-sin-categoria","tag-america","tag-prediction-markets","tag-sports-betting","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>DC power play: billion-dollar prediction markets build a firewall against state crackdowns - Mundo Video Entertainment | Casino News in Latin America and the World<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/dc-power-play-billion-dollar-prediction-markets-build-a-firewall-against-state-crackdowns\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"DC power play: billion-dollar prediction markets build a firewall against state crackdowns - Mundo Video Entertainment | Casino News in Latin America and the World\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Prediction markets are done playing cute. After a year of cease-and-desist letters and state-level smackdowns, Kalshi and Crypto.com have pulled together a K-Street vehicle \u2014 the Coalition for Prediction Markets \u2014 with Robinhood, Coinbase and Underdog on board, to argue that event contracts belong under federal derivatives law, not in the same box as parlay [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/dc-power-play-billion-dollar-prediction-markets-build-a-firewall-against-state-crackdowns\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Mundo Video Entertainment | Casino News in Latin America and the World\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/dc-power-play-billion-dollar-prediction-markets-build-a-firewall-against-state-crackdowns.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"667\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/dc-power-play-billion-dollar-prediction-markets-build-a-firewall-against-state-crackdowns\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/dc-power-play-billion-dollar-prediction-markets-build-a-firewall-against-state-crackdowns\/\",\"name\":\"DC power play: billion-dollar prediction markets build a firewall against state crackdowns - 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