{"id":20022,"date":"2026-11-13T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-11-13T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/?post_type=america&#038;p=20022"},"modified":"2026-11-13T07:07:37","modified_gmt":"2026-11-13T12:07:37","slug":"kalshi-hits-98-accuracy-as-democrats-threaten-prediction-markets","status":"publish","type":"america","link":"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/kalshi-hits-98-accuracy-as-democrats-threaten-prediction-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Kalshi hits 98% accuracy as Democrats threaten prediction markets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Washington, November 12, 2026.<\/strong> Kalshi and Polymarket anticipated the Democratic victory in the November 3 elections, but the shift in congressional majorities opens the door to investigations and regulatory disputes for prediction markets. Kalshi recorded more than <strong>US$2.5 billion<\/strong> in election contract trading volume, compared with US$1.3 billion in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/mve-ads\/?lang=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"500\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/ADS-MVE.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16352\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/ADS-MVE.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/ADS-MVE-300x250.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kalshi correctly predicted <strong>479 of 487 resolved races (98.4%)<\/strong>: 356 of 360 House districts, 32 of 33 Senate races, 33 of 34 gubernatorial elections, 26 of 27 attorney general races, nine of ten lieutenant governor contests, and 23 of 23 secretary of state races. Polymarket reported <strong>419 correct predictions out of 426 contracts (98.4%)<\/strong>. Their evaluation samples differ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"686\" height=\"412\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-166.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20026\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.6638418079096045;width:840px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-166.png 686w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-166-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 686px) 100vw, 686px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Elizabeth Warren<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Before polls closed, Kalshi assigned a <strong>93.3% probability<\/strong> to Democratic control of the House and 75% to the Senate; Polymarket showed 94.5% and 75.5%, respectively. One hour later, the figures stood at 97.3% and 88% on Kalshi, compared with 98.2% and 90.5% on Polymarket. These prices are not final settlement figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"639\" height=\"364\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-167.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20027\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.7529761904761905;width:840px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-167.png 639w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-167-300x171.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Scott Colom<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Projections as of November 11 placed Democrats at 55 Senate seats and 254 House seats, with several races still pending. <strong>Scott Colom<\/strong> defeated <strong>Cindy Hyde-Smith<\/strong> in Mississippi by approximately 4,600 votes, despite pre-election probabilities of just 14.5% on Kalshi and 13.5% on Polymarket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"648\" height=\"403\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-168.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20028\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.6092896174863387;width:840px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-168.png 648w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-168-300x187.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 648px) 100vw, 648px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Paul Tonko<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Texas, Attorney General-elect <strong>Nathan Johnson<\/strong> received 5,133,629 votes (52.4%), compared with 4,502,442 for <strong>Mayes Middleton<\/strong>. In Georgia, <strong>Tanya Miller<\/strong> defeated <strong>Brian Strickland<\/strong> by 2,322,310 votes to 1,858,099. Neither announced lawsuits against the platforms or made specific statements about their regulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"662\" height=\"404\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-169.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20029\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.636111111111111;width:840px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-169.png 662w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-169-300x183.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 662px) 100vw, 662px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <em>Tanya Miller<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Senators <strong>Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, and John Curtis<\/strong>, alongside Representative <strong>Paul Tonko<\/strong>, are demanding stronger controls on insider trading, advertising, and sports betting. <strong>Robert Garcia<\/strong> could chair the House Oversight Committee. <strong>Michael Selig<\/strong> heads the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates these federal contracts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/landing\/multigame-link\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/multigame-diamod-III-700-eng.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9622\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/multigame-diamod-III-700-eng.jpg 700w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/multigame-diamod-III-700-eng-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/multigame-diamod-III-700-eng-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Tarek Mansour<\/strong> leads Kalshi, while <strong>Shayne Coplan<\/strong> heads Polymarket. <strong>Donald Trump Jr.<\/strong> advises both companies; 1789 Capital announced a US$300 million investment linked to Polymarket\u2019s US$21 billion valuation. Approximately <strong>30 legislative proposals<\/strong> remain pending. Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia support a judicial review of state regulatory authority; the Supreme Court has yet to rule. Former regulator <strong>Ronnie Jones<\/strong> and consultant <strong>John Pappas<\/strong> anticipate increased congressional oversight beginning in January 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Washington, November 12, 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket anticipated the Democratic victory in the November 3 elections, but the shift in congressional majorities opens the door to investigations and regulatory disputes for prediction markets. Kalshi recorded more than US$2.5 billion in election contract trading volume, compared with US$1.3 billion in 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20023,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1458,1488,15,4891,102,585,4934,4899,105,1481],"class_list":["post-20022","america","type-america","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-sin-categoria","tag-america","tag-ban","tag-gambling","tag-kalshi","tag-online-betting","tag-online-gambling","tag-polymarket","tag-prediction-markets","tag-sports-betting","tag-texas","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Kalshi hits 98% accuracy as Democrats threaten prediction markets - Mundo Video Entertainment | Casino News in Latin America and the World<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Washington, November 12, 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket anticipated the Democratic victory in the November 3 elections, but the shift in congressional majorities opens the door to investigations and regulatory disputes for prediction markets. Kalshi recorded more than US$2.5 billion in election contract trading volume, compared with US$1.3 billion in 2024.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/kalshi-hits-98-accuracy-as-democrats-threaten-prediction-markets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kalshi hits 98% accuracy as Democrats threaten prediction markets - Mundo Video Entertainment | Casino News in Latin America and the World\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Washington, November 12, 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket anticipated the Democratic victory in the November 3 elections, but the shift in congressional majorities opens the door to investigations and regulatory disputes for prediction markets. Kalshi recorded more than US$2.5 billion in election contract trading volume, compared with US$1.3 billion in 2024.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/kalshi-hits-98-accuracy-as-democrats-threaten-prediction-markets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Mundo Video Entertainment | Casino News in Latin America and the World\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-165.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"674\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"428\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/kalshi-hits-98-accuracy-as-democrats-threaten-prediction-markets\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/kalshi-hits-98-accuracy-as-democrats-threaten-prediction-markets\/\",\"name\":\"Kalshi hits 98% accuracy as Democrats threaten prediction markets - Mundo Video Entertainment | Casino News in Latin America and the World\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/kalshi-hits-98-accuracy-as-democrats-threaten-prediction-markets\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/america\/kalshi-hits-98-accuracy-as-democrats-threaten-prediction-markets\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/image-165.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-11-13T13:30:00+00:00\",\"description\":\"Washington, November 12, 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket anticipated the Democratic victory in the November 3 elections, but the shift in congressional majorities opens the door to investigations and regulatory disputes for prediction markets. 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