{"id":15550,"date":"2026-03-24T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/?post_type=europe&p=15550"},"modified":"2026-03-24T06:21:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T11:21:22","slug":"portugal-blocks-103-million-in-political-bets-and-triggers-a-regulatory-crackdown-across-europe","status":"publish","type":"europe","link":"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/europe\/portugal-blocks-103-million-in-political-bets-and-triggers-a-regulatory-crackdown-across-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"Portugal blocks \u20ac103 million in political bets and triggers a regulatory crackdown across Europe."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As of March 21, 2026<\/strong>, the Polymarket case in Portugal remains ongoing<\/strong>, following the order issued by the Servi\u00e7o de Regula\u00e7\u00e3o e Inspe\u00e7\u00e3o de Jogos (SRIJ)<\/strong> on March 17<\/strong>, which granted 48 hours<\/strong> to cease operations before enforcing a nationwide block.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The decision is grounded in Decree-Law No. 66\/2015<\/strong>, the legal framework governing online gambling in Portugal, which explicitly prohibits betting on political events<\/strong>, limiting licensed activity to sports betting, online casino, and horse racing. Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan, operated outside this framework by offering markets on the country\u2019s 2026 presidential election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The trigger was scale. More than \u20ac103 million (US$120 million)<\/strong> was wagered, with spikes of \u20ac5 million in just two hours<\/strong> and sharp probability swings. Candidate Ant\u00f3nio Jos\u00e9 Seguro reached nearly 96% implied probability<\/strong> before polls closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ant\u00f3nio Jos\u00e9 Seguro<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The result confirmed a decisive outcome: Seguro secured approximately 66%\u201367% of the vote<\/strong>, defeating Andr\u00e9 Ventura, who obtained around 33%<\/strong> in the February 8, 2026, runoff<\/strong>. The gap suggests the market anticipated the result, although authorities flagged potential use of privileged information behind late betting surges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The SRIJ, operating under Turismo de Portugal, enforced the measure through internet service providers, reinforcing its role as licensing, supervisory, and enforcement authority in a market worth billion annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The implications extend beyond Portugal. Polymarket has processed over $4.3 billion in global political betting volume<\/strong> and faces restrictions in more than 30 jurisdictions<\/strong>, including France, Belgium, Singapore, and Ukraine. Europe is consolidating a clear regulatory stance: prediction markets are treated as unlicensed gambling<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The near-term outlook points to further blocks, increased pressure on crypto-based platforms, and consolidation around licensed operators. Online gambling in Europe is entering a new phase, where growth is increasingly shaped by strict regulation and state control over digital capital flows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As of March 21, 2026, the Polymarket case in Portugal remains ongoing, following the order issued by the Servi\u00e7o de Regula\u00e7\u00e3o e Inspe\u00e7\u00e3o de Jogos (SRIJ) on March 17, which granted 48 hours to cease operations before enforcing a nationwide block.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15553,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1488,1443,4923,3184,15,4934,3575,593],"class_list":["post-15550","europe","type-europe","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-sin-categoria","tag-ban","tag-betting","tag-eu","tag-europe","tag-gambling","tag-polymarket","tag-portugal","tag-regulation","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nPortugal blocks \u20ac103 million in political bets and triggers a regulatory crackdown across Europe. - 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