{"id":17041,"date":"2026-06-19T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/?post_type=gambling&#038;p=17041"},"modified":"2026-06-19T06:57:26","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T11:57:26","slug":"us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia","status":"publish","type":"gambling","link":"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/colombian-gambling-news\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia\/","title":{"rendered":"US$37 million market at Polymarket points to De la Espriella victory in Colombia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With just four days remaining before Colombia&#8217;s presidential runoff on <strong>21 June<\/strong>, prediction markets are signaling one of the strongest electoral trends seen anywhere in Latin America this year. The outcome matters well beyond Colombia\u2019s borders. As the region\u2019s fourth-largest economy and one of the most influential political actors in South America, Colombia\u2019s next government will shape debates on investment, security, energy policy, regional diplomacy and economic integration across Latin America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/mve-ads\/?lang=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"500\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/ADS-MVE.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16352\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/ADS-MVE.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/ADS-MVE-300x250.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The clearest signal comes from <strong>Polymarket<\/strong>, the world&#8217;s largest prediction market platform. Its presidential election contract currently assigns <strong>approximately 90% odds to Abelardo de la Espriella<\/strong>, compared with roughly <strong>12% for Iv\u00e1n Cepeda<\/strong>, marking a dramatic shift from the days immediately following the first round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"587\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17043\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia2.png 1000w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia2-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia2-768x451.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The movement is particularly noteworthy because it began from an already favorable position. In the <strong>31 May first round<\/strong>, De la Espriella secured <strong>10,361,499 votes (43.74%)<\/strong>, while Cepeda received <strong>9,688,361 votes (40.90%)<\/strong>, giving the conservative candidate a lead of more than <strong>673,000 votes<\/strong> heading into the runoff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"373\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17044\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia3.png 1000w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia3-300x112.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia3-768x286.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Polymarket traders reacted quickly. Following the first-round results, De la Espriella\u2019s implied probability stood at approximately <strong>66%<\/strong>, versus <strong>34% for Cepeda<\/strong>. By <strong>8 June<\/strong>, his odds had climbed to roughly <strong>85% against 16%<\/strong>. On <strong>15 June<\/strong>, the market moved further to <strong>89% versus 11%<\/strong>, and by <strong>17 June<\/strong>, De la Espriella reached the symbolic <strong>90% threshold<\/strong>, completing more than two weeks of uninterrupted upward momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"523\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17045\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia4.png 1000w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia4-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia4-768x402.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What makes the trend especially significant is the amount of capital behind it. During the period between rounds, the market absorbed more than <strong>US$37.4 million in trading volume<\/strong>, making it one of the largest political prediction markets ever recorded in Latin America. In highly liquid markets, sustained movements tend to attract attention because they are more difficult to explain through isolated speculation alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"523\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17046\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia5.png 1000w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia5-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia5-768x402.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The trajectory has also broadly mirrored polling trends published during the final stretch of the campaign, many of which place De la Espriella between six and eight points ahead of Cepeda. Analysts further note that the conservative candidate appears to have consolidated a large share of centrist, center-right and opposition voters following the first round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"436\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17047\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia6.png 1000w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia6-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia6-768x335.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first-round results themselves also strengthened confidence in prediction markets. Polymarket had consistently identified De la Espriella as the frontrunner before Colombians went to the polls on 31 May, and the final vote largely validated that assessment. For many international observers, the platform\u2019s performance in the first round has added credibility to its current outlook for the runoff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/landing\/multigame-link\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/multigame-diamod-III-700-eng.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9622\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/multigame-diamod-III-700-eng.jpg 700w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/multigame-diamod-III-700-eng-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/multigame-diamod-III-700-eng-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elections are decided at the ballot box, not on prediction platforms. Yet when viewed through the combined lens of first-round results, probability trends and trading volume, Abelardo de la Espriella enters the final days of Colombia\u2019s presidential race as the statistical favorite to become the country\u2019s next president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With just four days remaining before Colombia&#8217;s presidential runoff on 21 June, prediction markets are signaling one of the strongest electoral trends seen anywhere in Latin America this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17042,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[9,15,4891,102,585,4934,4899,5012,105],"class_list":["post-17041","gambling","type-gambling","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-sin-categoria","tag-colombia","tag-gambling","tag-kalshi","tag-online-betting","tag-online-gambling","tag-polymarket","tag-prediction-markets","tag-south-america","tag-sports-betting","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.6 - 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