{"id":19016,"date":"2026-10-06T08:25:30","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T13:25:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/?post_type=gambling&#038;p=19016"},"modified":"2026-10-06T08:25:33","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T13:25:33","slug":"polymarket-anticipated-brazils-shift-and-sends-bolsonaro-higher","status":"publish","type":"gambling","link":"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/colombian-gambling-news\/polymarket-anticipated-brazils-shift-and-sends-bolsonaro-higher\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket anticipated Brazil\u2019s shift and sends Bolsonaro higher"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Brazil entered October 5, 2026 with Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro and Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva heading toward a runoff on October 25, but Polymarket\u2019s prediction market had already been showing a progressive shift toward Bolsonaro since September.<\/strong> In the October 4 first round, Fl\u00e1vio finished first with <strong>47.03% of the vote<\/strong>, compared with <strong>45.16% for Lula<\/strong>, according to the reported count after election day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/colombian-gambling-news\/us37-million-market-at-polymarket-points-to-de-la-espriella-victory-in-colombia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>&#8211; US$37 million market at Polymarket points to De la Espriella victory in Colombia<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/landing\/multigame-link\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/multigame-diamod-III-700-eng.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9622\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/multigame-diamod-III-700-eng.jpg 700w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/multigame-diamod-III-700-eng-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/multigame-diamod-III-700-eng-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Polymarket\u2019s charts show the speed of the move. On <strong>September 1<\/strong>, Lula stood at <strong>56%<\/strong> implied probability versus <strong>39% for Fl\u00e1vio<\/strong>. By <strong>September 10<\/strong>, Bolsonaro had moved ahead at <strong>52.4%<\/strong>, compared with <strong>46% for Lula<\/strong>. On <strong>September 15<\/strong>, he remained in front at <strong>51.7% versus 45%<\/strong>, and by <strong>September 30<\/strong> the gap had widened to <strong>59.9% against 41%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"597\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-22-1024x597.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19019\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.717201166180758\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-22-1024x597.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-22-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-22-767x447.png 767w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-22.png 1198w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"478\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-20-1024x478.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19018\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2.1418181818181816\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-20-1024x478.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-20-300x140.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-20-767x358.png 767w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-20.png 1211w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After the October 4 result became known, the move accelerated: on <strong>October 5 at 1:40 p.m.<\/strong>, the Polymarket chart provided showed <strong>Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro at 82.5%<\/strong> and Lula at <strong>18%<\/strong>, with approximately <strong>US$173.2 million in trading volume<\/strong>. Those percentages represent <strong>market prices and implied probabilities, not voting intention or an opinion poll<\/strong>. That distinction is essential: Datafolha and other pollsters had the race much closer before the election, while prediction markets assigned Fl\u00e1vio a wider probability advantage of ultimately winning the presidency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/colombian-gambling-news\/polymarket-signals-collapse-of-colombias-guerrilla-aligned-left\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>&#8211; Polymarket signals collapse of Colombia\u2019s guerrilla-aligned left<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"560\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-21-1024x560.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19020\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.829192546583851\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-21-1024x560.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-21-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-21-767x419.png 767w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-21.png 1180w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"569\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-23-1024x569.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19021\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.801223241590214\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-23-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-23-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-23-766x426.png 766w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-23.png 1182w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The episode strengthens the argument from supporters of prediction markets who see them as a complementary tool for aggregating dispersed information backed by real money. That does not make them infallible; before the first round, another Polymarket contract had at one stage favored Lula as the winner of that round, and the platform has been blocked in Brazil since April 2026, a factor that can affect liquidity and market representativeness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"562\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-24-1024x562.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19022\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.8235294117647058\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-24-1024x562.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-24-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-24-767x421.png 767w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-24.png 1163w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/mve-ads\/?lang=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"500\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/ADS-MVE.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16352\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/ADS-MVE.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/ADS-MVE-300x250.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The platform also has several high-profile political markets that ultimately resolved correctly. In the <strong>2024 United States presidential election<\/strong>, its market traded <strong>US$3.686 billion<\/strong> and settled in favor of Donald Trump. In <strong>Colombia\u2019s 2026 presidential election<\/strong>, the market resolved \u201cYes\u201d for <strong>Abelardo de la Espriella<\/strong> within a contract that traded <strong>US$44.38 million<\/strong>, after he defeated Iv\u00e1n Cepeda in June. In <strong>Portugal<\/strong>, the presidential market traded <strong>US$136.47 million<\/strong> and settled in favor of <strong>Ant\u00f3nio Jos\u00e9 Seguro<\/strong>, who won the runoff with <strong>66.83%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Brazil entered October 5, 2026 with Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro and Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva heading toward a runoff on October 25, but Polymarket\u2019s prediction market had already been showing a progressive shift toward Bolsonaro since September. In the October 4 first round, Fl\u00e1vio finished first with 47.03% of the vote, compared with 45.16% for Lula, according to the reported count after election day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19017,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[4315,844,15,102,585,4934,4899,5012],"class_list":["post-19016","gambling","type-gambling","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","tag-brasil","tag-brazil","tag-gambling","tag-online-betting","tag-online-gambling","tag-polymarket","tag-prediction-markets","tag-south-america","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Polymarket anticipated Brazil\u2019s shift and sends Bolsonaro higher - Mundo Video Entertainment | Casino News in Latin America and the World<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Brazil entered October 5, 2026 with Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro and Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva heading toward a runoff on October 25, but Polymarket\u2019s prediction market had already been showing a progressive shift toward Bolsonaro since September. In the October 4 first round, Fl\u00e1vio finished first with 47.03% of the vote, compared with 45.16% for Lula, according to the reported count after election day.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mundovideo.com.co\/en\/colombian-gambling-news\/polymarket-anticipated-brazils-shift-and-sends-bolsonaro-higher\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Polymarket anticipated Brazil\u2019s shift and sends Bolsonaro higher - Mundo Video Entertainment | Casino News in Latin America and the World\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Brazil entered October 5, 2026 with Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro and Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva heading toward a runoff on October 25, but Polymarket\u2019s prediction market had already been showing a progressive shift toward Bolsonaro since September. 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