Macau’s gaming floor is moving beyond the “post-pandemic bounce” and entering a more stable expansion phase. In a recent outlook, UBS estimates that the city’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) could reach around 89 per cent of 2019 pre-Covid levels by 2026, supported by annual growth of roughly 6 per cent over the next two years. For many Asia-Pacific investors, this marks the transition from pure recovery story to long-term Greater Bay Area consumption play.
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Official figures show how far Macau has already come back. Casino GGR has returned to more than three quarters of pre-Covid levels, driven mainly by mass-market and premium-mass players rather than the old VIP junket model. For mainland Chinese visitors, Macau is again a “one-stop” weekend destination, combining gaming with retail, fine dining and live entertainment.
For Chinese and Asian readers, the message in the UBS call is very clear: the new Macau is a mass-driven, premium-focused market. Premium mass tables and high-limit electronic games are now the core profit engine, with operators carefully managing player reinvestment, targeted comps and loyalty programmes aimed at the Greater Bay Area middle class.
On the equity side, Hong Kong trading desks continue to focus on well-known Macau names, especially operators with strong balance sheets and heavy exposure to premium mass. Investors are watching quarterly GGR, hotel occupancy, retail spend and non-gaming revenue as key indicators of whether Macau has truly shifted to a higher quality earnings cycle.
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At the same time, policymakers in the special administrative region remain cautious. The government has warned that if monthly GGR drops too far below its comfort zone, public finances could slip into deficit, underscoring how dependent the city still is on gaming tax income. Beijing’s guidance is also clear: concessionaires must accelerate investment in non-gaming pillars such as MICE, sports, cultural shows and family-friendly attractions.
For the wider Asian market, Macau’s trajectory sits at the intersection of several regional themes: Greater Bay integration, cross-border e-payments, yuan stability and the rise of the premium-seeking Chinese traveller. If the UBS scenario is correct, by 2026 Macau will not simply be “almost back” to pre-Covid levels, but will have repositioned itself as a re-engineered Asian gaming hub aligned with China’s long-term regional vision.
