The Macau SAR Government has set its 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast at MOP 236 billion (about US$29.4 billion) in its fiscal planning, a baseline that many analysts are now reading as deliberately conservative rather than a “true target.”
Why? The latest performance indicators point in two opposing directions.
On the volume side, Macau is still gaining momentum as a destination. Visitor arrivals in 2025 reached about 40.06 million, up roughly 13.7% year-on-year, reinforcing the government’s narrative of tourism normalization and a broader services recovery.
But CreditSights—part of the Fitch group—highlights a key constraint: gaming revenue per visitor. Their monitor shows FY2025 GGR per visitor at MOP 6,174, down 5% YoY, signaling that incremental visitors are not translating into proportionate gaming wallet. This “spend dilution” risk is central to why the government may prefer a prudence-first number for 2026.
Segment data adds nuance. CreditSights estimates VIP GGR rose 24% YoY in 2025, lifting VIP’s share to 27% of total GGR (from 24% in 2024). Meanwhile mass market remained the backbone at 73% of GGR, but grew a more modest 4% YoY. That mix matters because VIP can swing totals quickly, yet it is also the segment most exposed to changes in liquidity, sentiment, and travel patterns.
The caution embedded in the 2026 forecast becomes clearer when comparing it to the latest full-year result: FY2025 GGR came in at MOP 247.4 billion (+9.1% YoY). A MOP 236 billion baseline implies a year that is flat-to-down from that level—even if it is still well above the government’s revised 2025 budget assumption of MOP 228 billion.
Bottom line: Macau’s government appears to be budgeting for resilience, not exuberance—anchoring 2026 on stronger arrivals, but acknowledging that spend per visitor remains the real battleground.
