As the Super Bowl heads to California, a parallel fight is intensifying over whether “prediction markets” are effectively offering sports betting in a state where sportsbooks remain banned outside tribal casinos. Platforms such as Kalshi are listing yes/no contracts tied to game outcomes and even entertainment moments, relying on the argument that they are federally regulated derivatives rather than state-regulated gambling.
The key catalyst is a sharp policy pivot at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Chairman Michael Selig said he has directed staff to withdraw a 2024 proposal that would have prohibited political and sports-related event contracts and to pull back a 2025 staff advisory that, in his view, “contributed to uncertainty.” He also ordered the drafting of a new rulemaking to set “clear standards” for event contracts and said the agency should defend its jurisdiction in pending court battles.
Super bowl lx betting forecast: $1.71b legal handle as market shifts from expansion to efficiency
That federal “green light” posture is landing right as demand spikes for Super Bowl markets. The Los Angeles Times reported that Kalshi drew about $27 million in volume on its Super Bowl LIX winner market last year, and has already seen more than $150 million in volume on its Super Bowl LX winner market, with users implying a 68% probability for the Seattle Seahawks over the New England Patriots.
Opposition is hardening. Lawmakers and gaming tribes argue these markets bypass state safeguards and taxation, while the National Football League has distanced itself: the Times cited testimony from executive VP Jeff Miller saying the league has “no plans” to participate in prediction markets, and that its internal gambling policy treats them similarly to other prohibited betting for league personnel.
Courtrooms may decide how far the CFTC’s approach can carry. In Nevada, the Nevada Gaming Control Board is battling multiple platforms, including Crypto.com and Robinhood, with oral arguments expected at the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit in April, according to SBC Americas. Meanwhile, regulators in Massachusetts have also moved against sports-style contracts.
The clash is unfolding alongside a broader betting surge: the American Gaming Association estimates $1.76 billion will be legally wagered on the Super Bowl through regulated sportsbooks nationwide.
