Coinbase is moving closer to a prediction-markets product that could debut as soon as December 17, as the crypto exchange accelerates its push to become a broader, multi-asset trading platform. Recent reporting suggests the initial rollout would center on event contracts and lean on Kalshi, a venue regulated at the federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as the underlying rails for offering those markets to U.S. users.
The timing is not accidental. Prediction markets have shifted from a niche curiosity to one of the fastest-growing battlegrounds in U.S. wagering and trading. Industry data cited in mainstream coverage shows monthly volumes across leading platforms jumping from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion by November 2025, driven by consumer appetite for outcome-based markets tied to politics, sports, and major headlines.
Coinbase’s move lands in the middle of an escalating regulatory tug-of-war. Prediction-market operators argue that CFTC oversight enables nationwide distribution of event contracts, including sports-linked markets, while segments of the traditional gaming ecosystem and some state-level voices warn that these products can function like sports betting without a sportsbook license. The debate is increasingly formalized through industry organizing, including a newly created coalition advocating for a federal framework around prediction markets.
DC power play: billion-dollar prediction markets build a firewall against state crackdowns
For gaming executives and suppliers, the strategic question is bigger than whether Coinbase launches. If a major retail trading app normalizes event contracts at scale, it could reset the economics of customer acquisition, compete directly with prop-style sportsbook offerings, and accelerate a convergence where “trading” and “betting” sit on the same consumer interface. The winners may be those who treat this as a compliance-and-product-design race, not a marketing contest.
