Google will begin allowing U.S. advertising for “Prediction Markets” on January 21, 2026, marking a major shift in how event-based markets can acquire customers across Search, Display and YouTube inventory. Under Google’s updated policy, prediction markets are defined as platforms that list or provide customer access to “Exchange-Listed Event Contracts” tied to economics, sports, or current events—and they will be treated under a financial-product framework, not standard gambling ads.
Eligibility is narrow: only federally regulated entities can advertise. Google says ads may run only for (1) CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) whose primary business is listing eligible event contracts, or (2) NFA-registered brokers that provide access to eligible contracts listed by a qualifying DCM. Advertisers must also apply for Google certification and comply with applicable laws, financial regulations, and Google’s broader ad policies.
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One detail drawing industry attention is geographic scope: the policy permits nationwide targeting except Nevada—a notable contrast to the state-by-state patchwork that typically governs sportsbook and casino advertising on major platforms.
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The change is widely viewed as a direct tailwind for regulated platforms such as Kalshi, which operates under CFTC oversight as an event-contracts venue. Coverage has also highlighted Polymarket in the broader “prediction markets” conversation, but Google’s eligibility language hinges on federal regulation and certification, meaning access to ads will depend on meeting the CFTC/NFA criteria.
Google is not opening the door to everything: the company reiterates that binary options and fixed-return contracts remain prohibited under its rules, reinforcing a bright line between CFTC-style event contracts and products Google deems inherently high-risk.
