The Mexican government is proposing a major fiscal shake-up that could dramatically alter the online gambling landscape. As part of its 2026 economic package, the new administration has put forward a plan to nearly double the ad valorem tax on online gambling winnings, raising it from the current 30% to a staggering 50%.
The move is part of a series of tax adjustments across various sectors, including sugary drinks, tobacco, and even violent video games. While the new taxes have been defended by President Claudia Sheinbaum as a measure to promote public health rather than purely a tool for revenue, the significant increase for online betting is sending a clear message.
The proposed tax is aimed at users' winnings on online platforms, placing the burden squarely on players. Operators and industry analysts are concerned that such a steep increase could drive consumers away from legal, regulated sites and push them toward the black market, undermining the government's stated goals. This could not only threaten the sustainability of legal operators but also reduce the very tax revenue the government hopes to collect.
Mexico is not planning a new casino law, it is not true
The proposal is currently being debated in Congress, where it must be approved before it can take effect. Observers are watching closely to see if lawmakers will greenlight the full 50% hike or if the industry can negotiate a less drastic measure. The outcome will be a major indicator of the new administration’s approach to the rapidly growing iGaming sector.
