City officials in Norfolk, Virginia, have confirmed that the long-awaited HeadWaters Resort & Casino, being developed by the Pamunkey Indian Tribe in partnership with Goldman Sachs, will generate about $15 million per year in tax revenue — less than half of the $33 million originally forecast when voters approved the project in 2020.
The latest estimates come from internal city documents reviewed in November 2025 and reflect slower construction progress, higher capital costs, and a more conservative gaming outlook for Virginia’s young casino market. The revised figure represents just 0.9 % of Norfolk’s $1.6 billion annual budget, compared with the 2 % contribution once projected.
The project’s first phase — a temporary casino expected to open in mid-2026 with roughly 1,500 slot machines and 40 table games — is now valued at $500 million, while the second phase, including a 300-room hotel, spa, and entertainment complex, has been delayed until at least 2027.
Economic analysts point to stiff competition from the Rivers Casino Portsmouth, which opened in early 2023 and quickly captured a dominant share of the Hampton Roads gaming market, generating over $250 million in revenue last year.
Councilman John “JP” Paige said he hasn’t seen exact numbers but heard that the tax revenue would be lower. Smigiel confirmed the numbers he wrote in the email. He said $15 million a year in tax revenue is still substantial.
While Norfolk officials still expect hundreds of new jobs and additional tourism, they acknowledge that the fiscal payoff will be smaller and slower than voters anticipated. “The project remains viable,” one city report notes, “but revenue expectations must be aligned with market realities.”
The Norfolk experience mirrors a national trend: as regional casino markets mature, early revenue projections often prove overly optimistic, particularly when neighboring jurisdictions enter the same gaming ecosystem.
