The fundamentals of Macau gaming stocks remain intact, supported by a steady daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) run-rate and solid hotel bookings ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, brokerage HSBC said in a recent report.
Analysts Charlene Liu, Jessie Lu and Lauren Cai noted that GGR for the first 21 days of January had reached MOP13 billion (US$1.6 billion), implying an average daily run-rate (ADR) of MOP629 million over the past week, an increase of 5 per cent compared to the week prior.
If the remaining days of January maintain a daily GGR run-rate ranging from MOP550-600 million, the full-month GGR is expected to reach MOP18.5 billion to 19 billion, representing a recovery to 74-76 per cent of the 2019 level.
“Near term correction maybe overdone. While the weak consumer spending outlook remains an overhang, steady ADR performance and solid bookings ahead of the CNY suggest fundamentals are intact,” HSBC analysts said.
Of the casino operators, HSBC research team prefers Sands China due to its large hotel inventory and its emphasis on the mass market segment. The analysts also favour MGM China due to its defensive market share and attractive valuation.
The broker cited that year-to-date visitor arrivals track at 70,000-80,000 per day, and the Macau government expects the number to rise to 120,000 during the forthcoming CNY holiday. “The expectation is not high in our view given it only translates into 70 per cent recovery vs. 2019 CNY level, whereas Oct and Nov 2023 already saw over 85 per cent recovery.”
