As China’s Two Sessions annual policy meetings get underway, Macau’s casino industry is closely watching Beijing for potential economic stimulus measures that could bolster consumer spending and drive gaming revenue growth.
Analysts from Seaport Research Partners suggest that new fiscal policies, including increased government spending and regulatory easing, could serve as a “positive tailwind” for Macau’s gaming sector. The city’s February 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) hit MOP$19.7 billion ($2.45 billion), marking a 6.8% year-on-year increase, raising hopes for sustained recovery throughout the year.
Macau’s Casino Outlook: A Matter of Perspective as Forecasts Diverge
China has already taken steps to boost Macau’s tourism sector, such as faster visa processing and expanding the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) to 10 additional mainland cities. These changes, along with relaxed travel restrictions between Hengqin and Macau, indicate Beijing’s continued support for the gaming hub’s economic stability.
Despite the positive trends, JP Morgan analysts remain cautious, predicting flat GGR growth for March at around MOP$19 billion ($2.37 billion). However, they anticipate an acceleration in H2 2025, with annual growth expected to reach +2% due to improved consumer confidence and increased marketing efforts by casino operators.
Seaport analysts remain optimistic, forecasting a 6.5% overall GGR growth in 2025, particularly as China’s broader economy stabilizes. Macau’s recovery is expected to be driven by premium mass gaming and increased inbound travel, positioning the city as an unstoppable force in Asia’s gambling market.
