Macau’s anticipated post-pandemic economic rebound, heavily reliant on the gaming industry, is showing signs of strain as fiscal revenue fails to meet government forecasts. According to Tai Kin Ip, director of the Economic and Technological Development Bureau, the city’s fiscal performance in Q1 2025 has been less optimistic than expected, despite a full year of reopened borders and resumed casino operations.
While gross gaming revenue (GGR) continues its upward trend—reaching MOP 18.5 billion in February 2025—the fiscal return has not kept pace, prompting concerns about the sustainability of Macau’s economic model. Gaming taxes remain the backbone of public finance, contributing over 80% of total government revenue, but Tai emphasized that external demand and domestic spending have not recovered in tandem.
Macau’s Casino Outlook: A Matter of Perspective as Forecasts Diverge
The mismatch between casino-generated income and actual fiscal returns raises alarms about Macau’s overreliance on high-stakes tourism and gaming. Economists point to factors such as decreased consumer spending, cautious travel from mainland China, and the slower-than-expected diversification of the economy beyond gaming.
Tai reiterated the need to strengthen non-gaming sectors such as technology, exhibitions, and finance, calling for strategic long-term planning. Meanwhile, the government is expected to revise its annual revenue projections in line with more conservative expectations.
Macau Looks to China’s Economic Stimulus for Casino Growth Amid Two Sessions
‘Invest more in people’: Chui
During yesterday’s meeting, which lasted nearly three hours, Chui Sai Cheong, president of the Macau Chamber of Commerce, proposed that the government should “invest more in people,” particularly in childcare, education, healthcare, and elderly care, to ease the public’s burden.
He also urged the business sector to “seize the opportunities presented by the nation’s development strategies,” including enhancing international exchanges and cooperation, promoting the government’s “1+4” development strategy, and supporting the growth of the private sector. According to Chui, the chamber will hold the 18th World Chinese Entrepreneurs Convention (WCEC) in Macau from November 2-4.
As Macau attempts to balance economic growth with fiscal responsibility, the performance of the gaming sector will remain a key indicator—highlighting both the opportunities and vulnerabilities of the world’s largest casino market.
