Macau’s economy recorded a 1.3% contraction in real GDP during Q1 2025, totaling MOP99.78 billion, according to preliminary data released by the Macau Statistics and Census Bureau (DSEC). This decline came despite an 11.1% increase in visitor arrivals year-on-year, highlighting a growing disconnect between tourism volume and actual economic gains.
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The DSEC attributed the slowdown primarily to changes in tourist consumption habits, which led to a 3.8% decrease in service exports, including gaming and hospitality. As of Q1 2025, Macau's overall GDP remains at just 85.2% of its 2019 pre-pandemic level, despite a strong rebound in international travel.
Not all sectors underperformed. Domestic demand indicators showed resilience: gross fixed capital formation rose by 7.8%, government spending increased by 1.0%, and private consumption edged up 0.6%. Yet, these gains were not enough to offset the drag caused by underwhelming external service revenue.
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The report also underscored how geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties, particularly in U.S.-China relations, continue to shape Macau's growth trajectory. Analysts point out that while visitor counts are up, spending per visitor has declined, possibly reflecting a shift to shorter stays or more budget-conscious travelers.
Despite the Q1 dip, the DSEC remains cautiously optimistic, noting that a cyclical recession is unlikely, and that Macau's fiscal position remains solid. Final GDP data for Q1 is scheduled for release on May 16, 2025.
