After years of regulatory limbo, Brazil’s fixed-odds betting market is starting to look like the kind of long runway operators hoped for: clear rules, measurable scale, and a government increasingly aligned on enforcement and budget planning.
A key signal is fiscal policy itself. Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies approved a phased increase in the sector’s levy on fixed-odds betting: the rate moves from 12% to 13% in 2026, 14% in 2027, and 15% in 2028—a roadmap now echoed in institutional communications from Congress.
At the same time, market data suggests regulation is already channeling meaningful volume into licensed rails. Industry reporting based on regulator information points to 79 authorised companies and 25.2 million Brazilians placing bets during 2025, alongside government action to block 25,000+ illegal websites in the market’s first year of full operation.
The topline numbers are equally telling, analysis reports that the licensed market generated BRL 37 billion (US$7bn) in GGR over 2025—an early-scale result that helps explain why Brasilia now treats betting as a stable budget line rather than a speculative promise.
On projections, the IBJR (Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming) cites a study estimating the formal market could produce BRL 36 billion in operator revenues in 2025, inject BRL 28 billion into the economy, and support 15,500 direct and indirect jobs—framing regulation as an industrial policy lever, not just a tax instrument.
Macro indicators reinforce the opportunity: in April 2025, Reuters reported Brazil’s central bank estimate that bettors were wagering up to BRL 30 billion per month via online platforms, underscoring the size of demand that regulation is trying to formalize. The same report cited officials Rogério Lucca and central bank governor Gabriel Galípolo as the debate intensified over consumer impacts and payment flows.
For compliant operators, suppliers, and investors, the message is simple: Brazil is no longer a “maybe later” market. It’s a market with data, enforcement, and a visible tax trajectory—exactly what makes long-term planning possible.
