As of March 21, 2026, the Polymarket case in Portugal remains ongoing, following the order issued by the Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ) on March 17, which granted 48 hours to cease operations before enforcing a nationwide block.
The decision is grounded in Decree-Law No. 66/2015, the legal framework governing online gambling in Portugal, which explicitly prohibits betting on political events, limiting licensed activity to sports betting, online casino, and horse racing. Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan, operated outside this framework by offering markets on the country’s 2026 presidential election.
The trigger was scale. More than €103 million (US$120 million) was wagered, with spikes of €5 million in just two hours and sharp probability swings. Candidate António José Seguro reached nearly 96% implied probability before polls closed.
António José Seguro
The result confirmed a decisive outcome: Seguro secured approximately 66%–67% of the vote, defeating André Ventura, who obtained around 33% in the February 8, 2026, runoff. The gap suggests the market anticipated the result, although authorities flagged potential use of privileged information behind late betting surges.
The SRIJ, operating under Turismo de Portugal, enforced the measure through internet service providers, reinforcing its role as licensing, supervisory, and enforcement authority in a market worth billion annually.
The implications extend beyond Portugal. Polymarket has processed over $4.3 billion in global political betting volume and faces restrictions in more than 30 jurisdictions, including France, Belgium, Singapore, and Ukraine. Europe is consolidating a clear regulatory stance: prediction markets are treated as unlicensed gambling.
The near-term outlook points to further blocks, increased pressure on crypto-based platforms, and consolidation around licensed operators. Online gambling in Europe is entering a new phase, where growth is increasingly shaped by strict regulation and state control over digital capital flows.
