Asian Gambling. The Vietnamese government published on Friday a decree that paves the way for selected domestic casinos to accept bets from Vietnamese gamblers, for a trial three-year period. The terms of the 50-page decree – available in Vietnamese on the government’s website – come into effect on March 15.
But the decree has a bigger background than just permit their locals gambling in country located casinos, well those who are going to receive the “hardest hit” are those who are located in cities or countries that limits with Vietnam, according to brokerage Union Gaming Securities Asia Ltd.
Grant Goversten, an analyst from Union Gaming affirmed the following, “We do expect the border casinos in cities like Bavet [in] Cambodia to bear the brunt of the downside, as the border casinos… have historically captured the lion’s share of Vietnamese customers,”
He added: “We would expect many to struggle to survive over the duration of the three-year Vietnam locals pilot program.
Following a meeting in December between officials of the northern province of Quang Ninh and Vietnam’s Prime Minister, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, it had been reported in the country’s media that a three-year trial period would be run regarding locals gambling, adding to this information the measure will allow citizens over 21 years old and with a monthly income of at least VND10 million (US$443) to enter local casinos and gamble.
Two casino resorts were mentioned at the time for the pilot scheme – one in the Van Don Special Economic Zone in Quang Ninh, and the other on the southern resort island of Phu Quoc. Both casinos are said to be under construction, with no scheduled opening date for either having been reported so far. (READ SO VIETNAMESE CASINOS, GROUND UP IN DESPITE OF REGULATIONS)
In his Sunday memo, Mr Govertsen said: “Neither of these locations are readily accessible by persons living in major metros [urban centres] of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.” And added to this statement “However, we do believe that the language of the decree could also allow [The Grand] Ho Tram (around two hours from Ho Chi Minh City) to apply to be part of the local’s pilot.”
Mr Govertsen said that the partial end to the ban on local casino gambling in Vietnam was unlikely to have a material impact on NagaWorld in neighbouring Cambodia. “We estimate NagaWorld’s current exposure to Vietnam, as measured by gross gaming revenue, is less than 5 percent on mass market and slots, and an even lower percentage of VIP.”
NagaWorld is the only casino resort in Cambodia’s capital Phnom Penh. The property is operated by Hong Kong-listed casino NagaCorp Ltd.
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HSBC Global Research predicts that MGM China, Wynn Macau, Galaxy, and Sands China will pay dividends in 2024, while Melco and SJM are likely to withhold dividends.
In a recent report on HSBC Global Investment Summit 2024 key takeaways, the financial services agency said that Macau’s gaming demand remains healthy, while gaming operators “remain committed to shareholder returns”. Analysts Charlene Liu, Jessie Lu, and Lauren Cai maintain a ‘buy’ rating for MGM China and Galaxy, noting that both operators observed positive trends across all business segments, with notable upticks in VIP segment.
Macau gaming stocks remain intact, supported by a steady daily gross gaming revenue.
Earlier in March, MGM China announced a final dividend of HKD0.243 per share and a special dividend of HKD0.104 per share for 2023. Similarly, Wynn Macau declared a final dividend of HKD0.075 per share for the same fiscal year.
“With growing offerings of non-gaming events of a different nature, both[operators] expect to see travelers return more often to Macau and the seasonality trend to smoothen out,” the analysts said.
Thailand’s Ministry of Finance has been appointed lead agency to consider a House committee study recommending the legalization of casino gaming but will work with 16 other agencies in doing so, local media reports.
Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat, who chairs the House committee, said earlier that the complexes would create jobs, boost tourism, and curb illegal gambling. He expected the complexes to generate 40-50 billion baht of revenue annually. After the plan is greenlighted, a policy-level committee will be established to supervise the project, to be chaired by the Prime Minister, he said.
Thailand’s National Assembly to debate introducing casinos on March 28
An administration-level committee will then be formed, comprised of ministers and executives from related agencies to consider each aspect of the project in detail.
The 16 other agencies named include the ministries of Tourism and Sports, Social Development and Human Security, Higher Education Science Research and Innovation, Agriculture and Cooperatives, Transport, Interior, Justice, Labour, Culture, Education, Public Health and Industry.
The study itself recommends imposing a 17% tax on gross gaming revenue – making it one of the lowest tax regimes in the region – with locals to be required to pay an entry levy of an amount yet to be determined. License duration would be set at an initial 20 years and then renewable every five years, while the larger casino complexes would require a minimum investment of US$2.7 billion.
The Office of the Council of State, the National Economic and Social Development Council, the National Office of Buddhism and the Royal Thai Police will also be consulted.
In march, a total of 36.301 billion yuan of lottery tickets were sold nationwide, a year-on-year decrease of 5.509 billion yuan or 13.2%. Among them, the sales of welfare lottery institutions were 12.632 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 899 million yuan, a decrease of 6.6%; the sales of sports lottery institutions were 23.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.610 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.3%. This is mainly because the market was closed during the Spring Festival holiday in February this year.
Cumulatively from January to February, a total of 93.865 billion yuan in lottery tickets were sold nationwide, an increase of 18.832 billion yuan or 25.1% year-on-year.
Among them, the sales of welfare lottery institutions were 32.322 billion yuan, an increase of 7.950 billion yuan or 32.6% year-on-year; the sales of sports lottery institutions were 61.543 billion yuan, an increase of 10.882 billion yuan or 21.5% year-on-year.
Foreigner-only casino operator Grand Korea Leisure which operates three casinos in South Korea and Seoul and Busan under the Seven Luck brand reported a 19.9% month-on-month increase in casino revenue to KRW40.4 billion (US$29.9 million) in March, which was also 4.4% higher than the same month in 2023.
The strong result, comprising a 19.7% sequential increase in table revenue to KRW37.3 billion (US$27.6 million) and 22.7% increase in slots revenue to KRW3.06 billion (US$2.27 million), came off a 10.1% improvement in drop to KRW321.1 billion (US$237.5 million).
This brings casino sales for the first three months of 2024 combined to KRW93.7 billion (US$69.3 million), down 12.9% on the same period last year but on the rise after a slow start to the year.
Table drop of KRW916.0 billion (US$677.4 million) through March is up 21.5% higher year-on-year.
This March 28th Of the 257 House members in attendance, 253 voted in favor of the casino gaming legislation. Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat said a casino feasibility study could now be advanced to national government’s cabinet. Assuming momentum continues building, it’s possible the first gaming venue in Thailand could open its doors before MGM Resorts International’s (NYSE: MGM) Osaka integrated resort. The first Japanese casino hotel is expected to open in 2030.
Thailand’s National Assembly to debate introducing casinos on March 28
Assuming two years to finalise a regulatory framework and three years to construct, the first entertainment centre may only open in 2029 (in Thailand),” said Maybank Investment Bank in a note to clients.
Should Thailand’s national cabinet formally approve entertainment complexes, it’s possible that up to eight such venues will be permitted and it’s likely that awarding of gaming licenses will occur in phases.
Thailand Casinos Could Beat Japan Efficiency, Emulate Singapore Model
Owing to its reputation as major tourist destination in Southeast Asia and its penchant for attracting visitors from China and the West, Thailand was already expected to attract some of the gaming industry’s biggest names in terms of bidding for casino permits.
That scenario could be amplified should the Thai government continue displaying efficiency in the legalization and regulatory process. Delays and lack of clarity on those fronts are why so many of the industry’s largest operators eventually threw in the towel on Japan, leaving that country with just the MGM Osaka venue to start its move into casino gaming.
Analysts also expect Thailand’s casino framework will be closer to that of Singapore than Macau and low tax rates could be another draw to international operators.
“Proposed gaming tax rates are low at 17 percent and social safeguards à la [in the manner of] Singapore will be proposed,” noted Maybank analysts.
Singapore is home to just two integrated resorts, which are operated by Genting Singapore and a unit of Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS).
It’s expected that Thai entertainment complexes featuring casinos could boost tourism spending in the country by as much as 52% annually. That’s one reason why the country will likely draw bids from some of the biggest names in the gaming industry.
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