Macau is entering 2026 with fewer “satellite” venues and a noticeably leaner on-the-ground casino footprint than in its boom years, but analysts say the market’s engine is shifting in a healthier direction: more mass play, more traffic-led performance, and a slower (yet steadier) VIP contribution.
Regulators’ post-2022 rules have accelerated consolidation. Authorities confirmed that 11 satellite casinos are set to cease operations by December 31, 2025, effectively drawing down a long-standing model where third-party properties ran gaming under concessionaires’ umbrellas. The transition is also being managed as a labour issue, with reallocation commitments around affected local staff.
On the revenue side, Macau’s gaming regulator reported full-year 2025 GGR of MOP 247.4 billion, up 9.1% year-on-year and back to roughly 85% of the 2019 level—progress, even if still far from the 2013 peak often cited as the market’s high-water mark.
Looking ahead, Jefferies forecasts mass-market GGR growth accelerating to 6.6% in 2026 (vs. its calculated 4.3% in 2025), while VIP growth slows sharply to 2.0% (from 24.1% in 2025). In Jefferies’ base case, that implies mass GGR just over MOP 191.26 billion and VIP GGR just above MOP 69.34 billion. The firm also expects profitability to improve versus Q3, though competition and incentive intensity remain a factor.
The hopeful takeaway: Macau may be “smaller” in venue count and structure, but a more scalable mass-market mix could make 2026 a sturdier year—provided monthly GGR doesn’t slip below the level officials have warned could strain public finances.
