Macau, November 3, 2026. Macau’s casinos recorded gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP 21.68 billion (US$2.68 billion) in October, a 10% year-over-year decline, while Seaport Research Partners forecasts just 0.9% growth for the full year 2026, despite rising tourism and gross domestic product (GDP).
- Macau casino EBITDA forecasts to fall 10.6%
The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) released the figures on November 1, marking the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines since June, although October revenue increased 20% compared with September. Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport, forecasts a 6.1% decline in November, a 5.2% contraction in the fourth quarter, and a 3% recovery in 2027. The government budgeted MOP 236 billion in GGR for 2026.
- Macau cuts its bet as 2026 GGR outlook weakens
According to Seaport, the VIP segment declined by more than 35% year-over-year in October, while mass-market gaming recorded a slight decrease. Umansky attributes the weakness to China’s economic conditions, stock market declines, tighter tax scrutiny of offshore wealth holdings, and postponed trips by high-stakes gamblers. Melco Resorts gained market share compared with the third quarter, while Galaxy Entertainment lost ground.
David Bain, of Texas Capital Securities, warned that promotional spending is pushing industry EBITDA margins toward 25%, compared with pre-pandemic levels of approximately 30%–35%.
In contrast, the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) reported on October 30 that GDP grew 2.9% between January and September, reaching MOP 316.13 billion. Third-quarter growth was just 0.1%, with gaming service exports falling 4.8%, other tourism services increasing 6.6%, and fixed investment rising 17.2%. Visitor arrivals reached 32,181,272 (+8.5%), including 23.88 million from mainland China; 19.78 million were same-day visitors. Tourism director Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes expects annual arrivals to exceed 41 million.
In Hengqin, Macau-related investment increased 215.3% to MOP 540 million during the third quarter. Under Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai, with Ng Wai Han heading Economy and Finance and Lio Chi Chong serving as acting DICJ director, the six concessionaires (Sands China, Galaxy, SJM, Melco, Wynn Macau, and MGM China) maintain multiyear investment commitments totaling MOP 118.8 billion through 2032.
