Macau entered October 4, 2026, with further cuts to its gross gaming revenue outlook after September closed as the weakest month of the year. The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported MOP18.1 billion (US$2.24 billion) in September GGR, down 1.2% year-on-year and 17.5% from August, while January-to-September revenue reached MOP187.1 billion (US$23.2 billion), up 3.2% year-on-year.
The slowdown prompted J.P. Morgan to cut its full-year 2026 forecast to MOP249 billion, implying growth of just 1% from 2025 and a recovery to roughly 85% of 2019 levels. The bank highlighted that September averaged only MOP602 million per day (US$74.5 million), the lowest daily run-rate since September 2024.
- Macau expects 5.4 million border crossings during Golden Week
J.P. Morgan identified three pressures; tighter tax enforcement in China over offshore assets, stronger-than-usual seasonality ahead of Golden Week, and a more uneven Chinese macroeconomic environment. For October, it projects MOP22.6 billion in GGR, down 6% year-on-year, while the entire fourth quarter is also expected to fall 6%, despite the seasonal boost from National Day Golden Week.
- Macau welcomes 4.48 million visitors, but GGR declines
Seaport Research Partners reached a similar conclusion. Analyst Vitaly Umansky forecasts Q4 GGR down 5% year-on-year and is still maintaining 2.3% growth for full-year 2026, although the model remains under review. The third quarter had already closed with GGR down 3.8% year-on-year. The pressure affects all six concessionaires; Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment Group, MGM China, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Wynn Macau and SJM Resorts.
The DICJ remains under acting director Lio Chi Chong, with Lei Seak Chio as deputy director. Political oversight sits with Ng Wai Han, Secretary for Economy and Finance since June 2026, under Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai. The contrast is tourism; Macau expected 5.2 million to 5.4 million border movements during Golden Week and around 120,000 visitors per day, while hotel occupancy had reached 93.9% in August. The risk is therefore increasingly concentrated on spend per player and the premium and high-net-worth segments, rather than visitor volume alone.
