Only a fool would dare to make such a forecast just at a time when we have reached historical exchange rate records with a dollar that reached locally and worldwide a historical appreciation against strong currencies such as the euro, which for the first time in history has the same cost as dollars.

What nobody dares to say is that it could lead to collapse and a devaluation never seen before.

It all starts right after the pandemic begins, the FED, which acts as the central bank of the United States, starts a frantic issuance of currency. In simple words, they turned on the dollar machine to counteract the effects of an economy paralyzed as a consequence of the quarantines ordered to stop the virus. The idea is an old recipe that consists of filling every corner of the country with dollars to be spent and thus reactivate the economy.

It is said that the amount of dollars in circulation as a result of this measure increased by 25%. The formula has worked, the United States has recovered the jobs lost during the pandemic and today has an unemployment rate equal to what it was before the pandemic. The economy grew steadily over the past year and regained the ground lost during the pandemic.

We are facing a market economy, the dollar is no exception, internally in the United States, if there are many dollars in circulation, it means that the supply increases and therefore the price of its currency decreases, this translates into an increase in the value of goods and services, that is, inflation, that is, just as in Colombia, if before the pandemic you could get a dozen eggs for less than a dollar, today that same thing is worth three times as much.

Here is a key question: are the products worth more or is the currency we pay with worth less than before? It seems to be the same thing, but it is not, and let's save the explanation of this point for later.

To counter inflation the FED applies the old reliable recipe of increasing interest rates and thus persuading people and companies not to take out loans and spend less, as people tighten their belts and are not willing to pay anything for products, prices go down and inflation is controlled, and everyone is happy because everything is back to normal.

And it is precisely at this point where Mr. Vladimir Putin, a declared enemy of the hegemony of the dollar as the world's reserve currency, comes in. The man has taken it upon himself to invade Ukraine just when the United States was about to complete its recipe and lower interest rates again to prevent the economy from stagnating again as a result of his own measures.

As a result of this war, in economic matters, there is a shortage of raw materials produced in both countries and which are essential to generate energy and food worldwide: cereals, gas and oil. What happens? After more than a year of raising interest rates, even at the cost of slowing down the economy, the FED has not been able to control inflation.

Here is the answer to the question posed in previous paragraphs: in the United States the currency is worth less and has less purchasing power, but additionally, as a consequence of the scarcity of raw materials, products are worth more. Continuing with the egg example:

1. The pandemic starts: a gringo citizen that we will call Mr. X loses his job because the company he works for is closed due to the pandemic. Mr. X has no income and starts saving, he does not buy the same number of eggs as before.

2. The government, aware of this situation, creates subsidies and gives money to Mr. X so that he can start buying again. The quarantine ends and, just like Mr. X, there are millions of citizens spending and demanding goods and services with the money given to them by the government. Businesses reopen and Mr. X recovers his job.

3. As Mr. X has his job, subsidies and credit card at low interest rates,

he has money and is no longer concerned or affected by the increase in the price of eggs, he is willing to pay whatever it takes. The producer, aware of this, takes advantage of this and triples the price.

4. The government, through the FED, controls Mr. X by increasing the interest rate so that he does not have such an easy time paying for eggs. The measure takes effect and Mr. X decreases the purchase of eggs. The trader realizes this and plans to lower his price so that Mr. X will start buying again in the same quantities as before.

5. The war starts in Ukraine and the egg producer observes that the price of the concentrate with which he feeds his hens increases. It turns out that the raw material for the concentrate is cereals, of which there is a worldwide shortage and therefore the price of cereals, concentrate and therefore eggs is skyrocketing, and the normalization of the price that the trader was trying to achieve is no longer possible. Mr. X and millions of others will have to continue paying for eggs at three times the price and even more. He reduces the amount of eggs he consumes. As the producer and marketer no longer sells the same amount, they must reduce their activity by laying off workers. The economy stagnates and inflation continues, what experts call stagflation.

But then why is the dollar increasing globally? Here is my theory, the situation seen in the United States is replicated almost identically in all capitalist countries. Investors, the owners of silver, are panicking in the face of the eminent world economic crisis and are looking for a refuge where they can send their money without losing value.

The United States, which receives dollars and pays a high interest rate as a result of the measures taken by the FED to control inflation, has not been able to lower them.

Therefore, externally the dollar is valued but internally it is devalued. The United States will not be able to lower inflation because dollars continue to flow uncontrollably from abroad from investors fleeing their respective countries.

The FED at some point will have to react to this phenomenon and give its arm to twist in an unsustainable increase of interest rates, at that moment the bubble created by this situation will burst and the dollar will devaluate in the same proportion in which it was issued without any backing, approximately 25%.

In the case of Colombia it would reach 2500 pesos. Mr. Putin will rub his hands to see how his great desire to see the dollar collapse and endanger its hegemony as the world's reserve currency with which the United States controls the world at will is fulfilled.