As for Macau, Beynon said the third quarter was coming in “light,” but stimulus and the holidays provide for a strong fourth quarter set up.

Macau gaming revenue through the week ending Sept. 22 is tracking at MOP 12.15 billion or ADR of MOP 552 million as VIP volume was down 11% to 13% month over month and mass was down 11% to 14% in the seasonally weaker September period that also had typhoon impact, Beynon said.

Wall Street analysts is “becoming more cautious” about Las Vegas casino earnings due to slowing leisure travel, while looking positively at Macau and Chinese economic-stimulus policies.

Channel checks suggest that foot traffic was strong for the Mid-Autumn Festival, but that visitor spend was weak. Assuming the rest of the month generates ADR of MOP 510 million to 600 million and considering the typical slowdown leading into Golden Week imply that September gaming revenue could end in the range of MOP 16.2 billion to 17 billion, Beynon said. That represents growth of 8% to 14% year over year and a drop of 14% to 18% month over month.

This would imply a third quarter Macau gaming revenue of MOP 54.5 billion to 55.3 billion, representing growth of 12% to 13% year over year and negative 2%-3% quarter over quarter.

With September revenue coming in softer than expected and impacted by typhoons, Beynon revised their industry model, and adjusted company estimates for third-quarter earnings.

Consensus currently calls for third-quarter Macau EBITDA quarter over quarter to be: Las Vegas Sands +2.4%, Wynn Resorts +3.4%, and MGM Resorts International -5.7%.

“The Chinese government announced economic-stimulus policies on September 24 that should be positive for the Chinese economy and thus Macau and we believe this has improved sentiment on Macau gaming stocks,” Beynon said.

For 2024, Beynon expects gaming revenue of -22% versus 2019 (+25% year over year). That’s $28.7 billion, with mass continuing to run above pre-pandemic levels.

“With additional operator revenue growth in mass and non-gaming, we model for margin upside despite higher opex concessionaire commitments,” Beynon said.

“Overall, we believe consensus remains conservative, particularly for Wynn, which we believe can gain share. We continue to be bullish on the long-term growth prospects for Macau and ranked Macau as our top sector in our 2024 Gaming Primer. For 2025, we continue to forecast gaming revenue -16% versus 2019 (+8% year over year), which is in line with consensus, but believe that the recently announced Chinese economic-stimulus policies could lead to upward estimate revisions.”

Macau is poised to achieve a daily hotel occupancy rate of over 90 percent this Golden Week, according to the latest forecasts from the city’s hoteliers

Bookings for “traditional hotels” in the NAPE district are nearing 80 percent, with room rates remaining stable compared to the same period in 2019, said Cheung Kin Chung, a government-appointed lawmaker who heads two industry groups, as per Macao Daily News.

The figures suggest that National Day travellers are likely to spend two to three nights, with Cheung expressing confidence that the number of reservations could increase further.

Three or four-star hotels are offering rooms for prices ranging from MOP1,000 to MOP2,000, while integrated resorts are priced at a minimum of MOP2,500.

The information, as reported by Macao Daily, was provided by Lou Chi Leong, president of the Macau Hoteliers and Innkeepers Association, who mentioned that “incoming travellers are expected to stay for about two nights”.

On Sunday (29th September), 96,717 visitors arrived in the city, while 99,098 departed – two days before the commencement of the seven-day holiday. Macau’s tourism chief stated last week that an average of 100,000 visitors per day could be expected this week.

In a recent note that “Golden Week room bookings are decent, but the quality of players seems weak thus far.” A broader economic landscape was cited as a reason, with an expected impact on players’ demand during the period of 1st to 7th October, about which “operators are not too optimistic.”

The update was provided in comments from GRA Chairman Tan Tee How, who noted that the number of Singapore Citizens and Permanent Residents who visited either of Singapore’s casinos – Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa – in 2023 numbered 99,000 or 3.0% of the Singapore adult population. Singapore charges citizens a daily levy of SG$150 or annual levy of SG$3,000 to enter its casinos.

“Through close collaboration with the National Council on Problem Gambling and the Singapore Police Force, GRA has continued to achieve good outcomes, with both casino crime and problem gambling rates remaining low,” he said in his foreword. “So has the visitorship by Singapore Citizens and Permanent Residents.”

Singapore distrusts Online Casinos and sees more possibilities of money laundering than in physical ones.

Tan also pointed to the GRA’s key initiatives over the past year, with a particular focus on embracing change, innovating for the future and developing its capabilities.

As recently outlined by the Ministry of Home Affairs, Singapore’s key agencies have completed a review of the Casino Control Act with legislative amendments targeted to be implemented by next year.

These will include the implementation of cashless gaming, with Tan noting the importance of Singapore updating its regulatory preparedness for future technologies.

Just 3% of Singapore’s resident population visited the city’s casinos in 2023, highlighting its success in keeping problem gambling rates low according to information from the Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) in its 2023/24 Annual Report.

“In carrying out this review, we aim to enhance regulation of casinos and our licensees, ensure operational effectiveness and future-readiness of our regulatory regime, and strengthen protection for vulnerable groups,” he said in the Annual Report.

HKD dominant in Macau casinos. Patacas are the official currency of Macau, although Hong Kong dollars are most often used in casino transactions.

Macau has moved a step closer to the potential introduction of a digital currency as it seeks to better combat money laundering and tax evasion in the world’s biggest gambling hub.

China’s plan for a digital renminbi, or yuan, is seen as a way to curb money laundering, tax evasion and terrorism financing. According to analysts , gaming experts believe “Beijing would welcome renminbi play in Macau, digital RMB would mitigate what Beijing sees as the most harmful financial side effect of Macau casinos: capital flight through illegal funds transfers from the mainland,”

VIP volumes have dwindled due to crackdowns on cross-border gambling and illicit money exchanges. But big spenders are still spending big, as indicated by a recent Citigroup study.

The table survey showed a marked increase in average wagers by VIP gamblers. Through September, 228 so-called “whales” wagered a total of HK$43.3m (£4.8m/€5.8m/$6.5m), up 43% over the same period in 2023.

The People’s Bank of China has trialled a digital yuan in several cities, putting it on track to be the first major central bank to issue a virtual currency. A broader roll-out is expected for the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February 2022, giving the effort international exposure. The development of a digital yuan hasraised US concerns of a potential threat to topple the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency in the long term.

Thailand’s Pheu Thai Party, the main force within the country’s current coalition government, has once again underscored its backing for the legalization of casinos in the nation, viewing it as a key opportunity for economic growth.

In a statement posted over the weekend on its official Facebook account, the party reiterated its commitment to advancing plans for so-called “entertainment complexes”, arguing that these would help bring Thailand’s “underground economy” into the formal tax system. Such a move, the party claimed, would generate new revenue streams for the government.

The Pheu Thai Party suggested that these revenues would be directed towards improving the welfare of Thai citizens by funding education, public health, and essential public services.

The term “entertainment complexes” in Thailand refers to large leisure resorts that are expected to include casino venues, among other attractions. Earlier this month, Julapun Amornvivat, Thailand’s deputy finance minister, said the country would move ahead with plans for legalizing casinos.

The official, described as a key member of the Pheu Thai Party, stated that a revised version of a draft bill to legalize and regulate casino businesses would be submitted to the country’s cabinet for consideration by coalition partners.

In its recent statement, the Pheu Thai Party highlighted Thailand’s potential to expand its ‘fun economy’ by promoting new forms of tourism.

“One of the ways to achieve this is by integrating legal casino and gambling businesses into the system, governed by clear standards, legal oversight, and with proper collection of taxes,”

The Pheu Thai Party further stated that these large-scale entertainment complexes would encompass not only gaming venues but also shopping malls, five-star hotels, restaurants, bars, convention centres, health centres, sports facilities, amusement parks, and areas promoting Thai culture.

According to a first draft of the bill to legalise and regulate casino businesses, each entertainment complex would require at least THB100 billion (US$3.04 billion currently) in investment.