Days before the first round of voting for the Presidency of Colombia, the price of the dollar has presented an important variation, BUT it is not something we should be so happy about.

Evidently, this represents an atypical situation, because according to the different analyses of economic experts and even those presented by Mundo Video, to see a dollar in Colombia below $4,000 COP, when the market expected it to be closer to $4,200 COP, is a phenomenon that should be examined in detail, because political instability and its direct impact on the country risk rating are arguments that promote the rise of the dollar, however, there are external effects that condition it.

At the moment, the US currency reached a minimum price of $3.925 pesos yesterday, its lowest value since the end of April 2022, a little less than 100 pesos compared to its value during the weekend of May 15, when it reached a value of $4.110 pesos.

What can be understood by the global trend, especially in investment funds, is a market correction, which will mark the behavior of the currency in the short term but strongly in the long term accompanied by the outcome of the upcoming elections.

Key aspects for this analysis are the slowdown of the global economy and the surprisingly strong inflation numbers, rising interest rates and less liquidity from central banks.

However, according to the correction of the investment market in emerging markets, more and more funds will stop investing so freely and unrestrictedly in world economies, including ours, which has had record traction during the last few years.

In order for these international funds/investors (especially those from the United States) to continue investing, they must look for opportunities in the market that exceed 10% profitability, so that their money generates value over time with the recently announced inflation of 9.7% in the American country.

Reason enough for all investors to begin to make the decision to readjust their capital, obtain liquidity and begin to save money to have room to maneuver to what may happen both globally and domestically. Therefore, as there is so much capital flowing around, because hundreds of investors are selling, the value of the currency shows a drop like the one we are observing today.

On the other hand, the director of the Dane, Juan Daniel Oviedo, indicated that the annualized inflation for April reached 9.23%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fourth month of the year was 1.25%. The items that contributed most to these results were food, lodging, water, electricity, gas, among others.

The CPI measures month to month the joint variation of the prices of a basket of goods and services representative of the consumption of the country's households.

Thus, it is a fact that the recent drop provides attractive opportunities to buy dollars.

Since it is very likely that by Monday, we will see a higher dollar again, understanding that the political polarization that the country is experiencing today does not guarantee that the candidates who pass to the second round will issue a high security in country risk rating, so that the currency remains stable for a foreign investment analysis.

On the contrary, it is the most apt moment for capital flight to occur.

In addition, the domestic market has not led an outstanding negotiation of dollars, which could be understood as a kind of tense calm waiting for the results.

What should be highlighted then, is that after the result of the new president of Colombia, he should evaluate his macroeconomic policies and that they are in line with what has been the behavior of the last decades, so that the exchange rate in Colombia could not vary substantially.

Even so, analysts expect a fluctuation of +/- 300 pesos.

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Finally, and in these analysts agree, we must appreciate that in Colombia there has been an economic growth to highlight, making us one of the top 5 countries in the region for entrepreneurship, in fact, in the latest Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) study conducted by the World Economic Forum (WEF), Colombia is located worldwide in the 25th position among the best countries to start a business. This was previously something that very few achieved.