Thailand is approaching a pivotal crossroads. Just one day after a powerful earthquake shook key regions of the country, the Thai cabinet approved a draft bill that paves the way for the legalization of integrated resorts (IRs) with casinos. The message is clear: the government intends to move forward with its gaming agenda—disaster or not.
There’s logic behind this urgency. Tourism accounts for over 12% of Thailand’s GDP and supports more than 4 million jobs. In 2019, Thailand welcomed nearly 40 million international tourists, with 11 million coming from China. Strategically located, politically stable, and globally recognized as a safe and welcoming destination, Thailand has all the ingredients to become the next big gaming hub in Asia.
The IR bill envisions up to five casino licenses, competitive 17% GGR tax rates, and foreign investment incentives. It's a model designed to attract global operators and revitalize tourism. However, this bold move could come at a diplomatic cost.
China has repeatedly cracked down on outbound gambling tourism, issuing blacklists, restricting flights, and curbing capital flows to overseas casinos. In 2023, Chinese tourist numbers to Thailand had only recovered to around 60% of pre-pandemic levels. A perceived provocation from Bangkok could freeze that recovery—or worse.
Thailand now finds itself flipping a coin: heads, it reinvents itself as Southeast Asia’s entertainment capital, attracting billions in investments and taxes; tails, it jeopardizes its most valuable inbound market at a time when post-earthquake recovery is urgent.
Singapore managed to strike that balance, legalizing casinos while preserving strong ties with China. Can Thailand do the same? Success will hinge not just on the law’s content but on how it's marketed, regulated, and diplomatically framed.
The coin is in the air. Thailand must hope it lands on both sides at once.
