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You are here -> Home / opinion /

Tribal powerhouses aren’t bluffing—prediction markets can’t trample IGRA

Published date: 2025-06-20

When it comes to U.S. gaming, tribes aren’t playing around—they’re the juggernauts of the industry, flexing true financial and legal muscle. From San Manuel’s stadium sponsorships to Seminole and Mohegan investments in sports franchises, tribal enterprises are running the field. Now, with Kalshi pushing ‘prediction markets’ under commodity law, tribal attorneys like Scott Crowell and Joseph Webster are fighting back in court—and this fight just got real.

Crowell and Webster, representing a coalition of 60 federally recognized tribes and nine tribal organizations, argued in the Third Circuit that Kalshi's sports contracts violate the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA). Their amicus brief doesn't just challenge semantics—it's a full-frontal defense of tribal sovereignty.

IGRA gives tribes exclusive rights to Class III gaming on their lands—sports betting included. Kalshi is trying to dodge that by calling bets “event derivatives” under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). That’s a loophole tribes say undermines the federal law protecting their compacts. Their argument? Kalshi’s contracts are outright sports wagers, plain and simple—and they’re conducted on tribal soil.

It's more than a legal tussle; it’s about setting the terms for the future. Platforms like Kalshi might operate under CFTC jurisdiction, but tribes aren't standing still. They’ve invested billions in gaming power—not just casinos but stadium naming rights (San Manuel at SoFi), pro teams (Seminole’s Hard Rock), even the WNBA’s Connecticut Sun under the Mohegan banner. This isn’t about nostalgia—it’s about market control.

Kalshi may have secured preliminary wins in some courts—but tribal attorneys Crowell and Webster made one thing crystal clear: these are tribal issues as much as legal ones. Their brief isn’t just about bets—it defends a longstanding framework built on sovereignty, compacts, and local benefit. Prediction markets might be trendy, but tribes are betting on systems with money, muscle, and legal certainty. And when it comes to sovereignty, they don’t bluff.


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