Washington, November 12, 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket anticipated the Democratic victory in the November 3 elections, but the shift in congressional majorities opens the door to investigations and regulatory disputes for prediction markets. Kalshi recorded more than US$2.5 billion in election contract trading volume, compared with US$1.3 billion in 2024.
Kalshi correctly predicted 479 of 487 resolved races (98.4%): 356 of 360 House districts, 32 of 33 Senate races, 33 of 34 gubernatorial elections, 26 of 27 attorney general races, nine of ten lieutenant governor contests, and 23 of 23 secretary of state races. Polymarket reported 419 correct predictions out of 426 contracts (98.4%). Their evaluation samples differ.
Elizabeth Warren
Before polls closed, Kalshi assigned a 93.3% probability to Democratic control of the House and 75% to the Senate; Polymarket showed 94.5% and 75.5%, respectively. One hour later, the figures stood at 97.3% and 88% on Kalshi, compared with 98.2% and 90.5% on Polymarket. These prices are not final settlement figures.
Scott Colom
Projections as of November 11 placed Democrats at 55 Senate seats and 254 House seats, with several races still pending. Scott Colom defeated Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi by approximately 4,600 votes, despite pre-election probabilities of just 14.5% on Kalshi and 13.5% on Polymarket.
Paul Tonko
In Texas, Attorney General-elect Nathan Johnson received 5,133,629 votes (52.4%), compared with 4,502,442 for Mayes Middleton. In Georgia, Tanya Miller defeated Brian Strickland by 2,322,310 votes to 1,858,099. Neither announced lawsuits against the platforms or made specific statements about their regulation.
Tanya Miller
Senators Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, and John Curtis, alongside Representative Paul Tonko, are demanding stronger controls on insider trading, advertising, and sports betting. Robert Garcia could chair the House Oversight Committee. Michael Selig heads the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates these federal contracts.
Tarek Mansour leads Kalshi, while Shayne Coplan heads Polymarket. Donald Trump Jr. advises both companies; 1789 Capital announced a US$300 million investment linked to Polymarket’s US$21 billion valuation. Approximately 30 legislative proposals remain pending. Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia support a judicial review of state regulatory authority; the Supreme Court has yet to rule. Former regulator Ronnie Jones and consultant John Pappas anticipate increased congressional oversight beginning in January 2027.
