The 45-day deadline for DANE to complete the official statistics for the first quarter of the Colombian economy in 2018 has arrived.
This occurs with the strong-hold of the implemented changes that include a base of analysis ampler than in previous occasions, and the update of the new base 2015 of the National Accounts, that implemented the classification CIIU4.0 and followed the recommendations of the Statistical System United Nations.
From now on, 12 productive sectors or industries will be taken and not 9 as was the case previously, therefore, the national economy once again took a positive direction according to DANE statistics, that is, as a result of this first semester, it obtains an economic growth of 2.2% whereas for the same it lost in the previous year the economy managed to obtain 1.3%. READ HERE: COLOMBIAN ECONOMY: WE´RE CROSSING FINGERS ABOUT DANE NUMBERS
According to the methodology adopted by the DANE, 9 of the 12 sectors presented a positive variance and 7 of these 9 exceeded the national average.
1. Financial and insurance activities: 6.1%
2. Public administration and defense: 5.9%
3. Professional, scientific and technical activities: 5.6%
4. Art, entertainment and recreation activities: 4.0%
5. Wholesale and retail trade: 3.9%
6. Information and communications 3.1%
7. Real estate activities that increased 2.9%
President Juan M. Santos described these results as "Good news for the country, the outlook for the coming quarters is very favorable."
Generating this value of the Colombian economy for the first quarter of the year of 210.8 trillion pesos. However, a total of 3 other sectors remain to be evaluated, which, when the DANE measures were taken, did not achieve positive results, but rather a decline in their growth.
1. Manufacturing industry -1.2%
2. Exploitation of mines and quarries -3.6%
3. Construction -8.2%
According to César Hernández Álvarez, consultant at Multiedro Consulting, "While the acceleration of the pace of Colombian economic activity in the first quarter of 2018 was significant, expanding by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, it is necessary to take into account that the statistical base of the first quarter of 2017 is much lower because in that period it had the effect of increasing the general VAT rate ".
Some changes in macroeconomic variables linked to the performance of the Gross Domestic Product, such as the softening of inflation, the contractionary monetary policy of the Banco de la República, the recovery in the confidence of businessmen and consumers and the increase in oil prices, helped have a better behavior in this first quarter.
On the other hand, the strong increase in recent weeks in international oil prices has given a new air to the local oil sector, because according to the figures, drilling has increased in the last year. And according to, Juan David Ballén, director of economic research at Casa de Bolsa:
"This is a movement that is associated with the recovery of oil prices. In this sense, the upward trend of its quotation encourages the exploration and production of crude locally. As it increases, the activity will be positive. "
Finally, non-traditional exports have risen again, comes the momentum of the 4G, the Colombian peso is more competitive, and the global economy plays in favor; but for the excepts it means the opposite: they had to add 3 sectors to have a 2.2% that no one believes, even the least versed in economic matters
