The future of Macau’s casino industry seems to depend on who you ask. While Citigroup has slashed its 2025 revenue growth forecast for the region, JP Morgan remains optimistic about post-Chinese New Year gaming demand. These contrasting viewpoints highlight the uncertainty surrounding Macau’s recovery and the factors shaping its economic outlook.
According to Citigroup, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is now expected to decline by 1% in the first half of 2025— a sharp contrast from its earlier projection of 7% growth. The firm attributes this downward revision to disappointing Chinese New Year gambling volumes and the impact of new U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports, which could weaken consumer spending in the region.
This cautious stance suggests that macroeconomic challenges are weighing on Macau’s casino industry, slowing what was once seen as a rapid post-pandemic recovery.
On the other hand, JP Morgan sees promising signs. The bank reports that Macau’s casinos generated MOP$7.4 billion (US$922 million) in GGR during the first nine days of February, averaging MOP$822 million (US$102 million) per day. While these figures are on the lower end of expectations, they indicate stable demand following the Chinese New Year Golden Week, which is typically one of the busiest gambling periods in Macau.
These opposing viewpoints reflect different interpretations of Macau’s performance. While long-term economic risks like trade tensions and declining spending power worry some analysts, short-term stability in gambling revenue suggests that Macau’s casino industry still has the potential to bounce back.
