The U.S. prediction market is entering a new phase, because DraftKings is accelerating the vertical integration of its business, the CFTC is preparing limits aimed at preventing conflicts of interest, and Trump Media has abandoned the direct integration of Truth Predict with Crypto.com.
The latest move comes from DraftKings. On August 7, 2026, its exchange DKeX certified a contract with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) called COMBOS, structured as an event contract that allows two or more outcomes to be combined under the question “Will all outcomes occur?”. Commercially, it reproduces much of the logic of sportsbook parlays, but within a federally regulated derivatives framework.
DKeX originated from Railbird Exchange, acquired by DraftKings in October 2025. Railbird had obtained Designated Contract Market (DCM) status from the CFTC on June 13, 2025. DraftKings, led by co-founder and CEO Jason Robins, also controls DraftKings Predictions, registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM).
Jason Robins
The strategy is designed to shift more volume onto its own infrastructure. In July, DraftKings Predictions processed roughly US$30 million per day, while DKeX generally remained below US$1 million daily. More than half of DraftKings Predictions users had already used combinations, which accounted for nearly 20% of retail volume.
Michael S. Selig
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That model explains the second development. The CFTC, chaired by Michael S. Selig, proposed new rules on July 30 for market makers affiliated with the exchanges themselves. The agency estimates there are around eight vertically integrated structures and would allow them only under specific conditions: continuous two-sided quotations, lower priority than independent orders at the same price, and restrictions on directional positions except those arising incidentally from liquidity provision.
The third move goes in the opposite direction. Trump Media & Technology Group and Crypto.com terminated on August 7 their planned direct integration of prediction markets into Truth Social. Truth Predict, originally announced in October 2025, was expected to rely on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a federally regulated DCM.
- Trump’s Truth Social to launch crypto-powered prediction markets with Crypto.com
Kevin McGurn
Trump Media, with Kevin McGurn serving as Interim CEO, will instead maintain primarily a marketing and distribution relationship, while Crypto.com provides the underlying event-contract infrastructure through platforms including OG.com.
The divergence defines the new market: DraftKings wants greater control over exchange, intermediation and product; Trump Media is reducing operational exposure; and the CFTC is trying to ensure vertical integration does not turn a market operator into a “house” with an advantage over customers.
