With just four days remaining before Colombia's presidential runoff on 21 June, prediction markets are signaling one of the strongest electoral trends seen anywhere in Latin America this year. The outcome matters well beyond Colombia’s borders. As the region’s fourth-largest economy and one of the most influential political actors in South America, Colombia’s next government will shape debates on investment, security, energy policy, regional diplomacy and economic integration across Latin America.
The clearest signal comes from Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market platform. Its presidential election contract currently assigns approximately 90% odds to Abelardo de la Espriella, compared with roughly 12% for Iván Cepeda, marking a dramatic shift from the days immediately following the first round.
The movement is particularly noteworthy because it began from an already favorable position. In the 31 May first round, De la Espriella secured 10,361,499 votes (43.74%), while Cepeda received 9,688,361 votes (40.90%), giving the conservative candidate a lead of more than 673,000 votes heading into the runoff.
Polymarket traders reacted quickly. Following the first-round results, De la Espriella’s implied probability stood at approximately 66%, versus 34% for Cepeda. By 8 June, his odds had climbed to roughly 85% against 16%. On 15 June, the market moved further to 89% versus 11%, and by 17 June, De la Espriella reached the symbolic 90% threshold, completing more than two weeks of uninterrupted upward momentum.
What makes the trend especially significant is the amount of capital behind it. During the period between rounds, the market absorbed more than US$37.4 million in trading volume, making it one of the largest political prediction markets ever recorded in Latin America. In highly liquid markets, sustained movements tend to attract attention because they are more difficult to explain through isolated speculation alone.
The trajectory has also broadly mirrored polling trends published during the final stretch of the campaign, many of which place De la Espriella between six and eight points ahead of Cepeda. Analysts further note that the conservative candidate appears to have consolidated a large share of centrist, center-right and opposition voters following the first round.
The first-round results themselves also strengthened confidence in prediction markets. Polymarket had consistently identified De la Espriella as the frontrunner before Colombians went to the polls on 31 May, and the final vote largely validated that assessment. For many international observers, the platform’s performance in the first round has added credibility to its current outlook for the runoff.
Elections are decided at the ballot box, not on prediction platforms. Yet when viewed through the combined lens of first-round results, probability trends and trading volume, Abelardo de la Espriella enters the final days of Colombia’s presidential race as the statistical favorite to become the country’s next president.
