In a landmark move, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has voluntarily dismissed its appeal against Kalshi, a New York-based prediction market platform. This decision effectively allows Kalshi to offer contracts enabling Americans to legally bet on political outcomes, such as which party will control Congress
Kalshi's legal battle with the CFTC began in 2023 when the agency denied its proposal to list political event contracts, citing concerns over unlawful gaming and public interest. However, a federal judge ruled in Kalshi's favor in September 2024, stating that the CFTC had overstepped its authority. The agency's recent decision to withdraw its appeal solidifies this ruling, marking a pivotal moment for the future of regulated prediction markets in the United States
This development coincides with a surge in public interest in betting on high-profile events. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen millions of dollars traded on contracts predicting the next pope following Pope Francis’s death on April 21, 2025. Polymarket has recorded over $13 million in betting volume, while Kalshi has seen $4 million .
The legalization of political betting in the U.S. represents a significant shift in the perception of such markets, transitioning from fringe activities to legitimate financial instruments. Kalshi's CEO, Tarek Mansour, hailed the outcome as historic, emphasizing the legitimacy and future of regulated prediction markets.
As the lines between traditional financial markets and event-based trading continue to blur, the U.S. stands at the forefront of this evolution, embracing a future where betting on political and global events becomes an integral part of the financial landscape.
