The 2026 World Cup group-stage draw is already moving the betting lines long before the first ball is kicked. With the groups now set, Spain has jumped to the top of the outright boards at several international sportsbooks, edging ahead of England, France, Brazil and defending champions Argentina as the early favorite to lift the trophy.
Traders point to a brutal combination of form and numbers. Spain is coming off a dominant Euro 2024 campaign, winning seven out of seven and scoring freely, and now rides an official 31-match unbeaten run. That kind of streak tends to compress prices fast: what was once a team in the mid-range of the futures market is now trading at odds where a relatively small stake can return roughly six times the money if Spain goes all the way.
The draw also matters. Being placed in what analysts consider a manageable group gives Spain extra breathing room to rotate the squad and hit the knockouts with fresher legs, which only reinforces their status on the screen.
From a U.S. perspective, the impact is just beginning. With more than half the states now offering legal sports betting, the World Cup is expected to generate one of the biggest international soccer handles ever recorded by American operators. A clear favorite like Spain gives books a natural anchor for outright markets, group-winner bets and long-term parlays, while casual bettors in the U.S. are likely to split their “public money” between European powerhouses, South American giants and patriotic action on Team USA.
For bookmakers on both sides of the Atlantic, the message is the same: once the draw is done, the real World Cup doesn’t start on the field — it starts on the odds board.
